Prognostic value of pneumonia severity score and CURB-65 score for elderly community acquired pneumonia in different age groups
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摘要: 目的 评估肺炎严重程度评分(PSI)和CURB-65评分对65~79岁及≥80岁的老年社区获得性肺炎(CAP)严重程度和预后评估的价值。 方法 采用回顾性分析方法选取2018年9月—10月重庆医科大学附属第一医院收治住院的98例老年CAP患者作为研究对象,根据患者年龄分为低年龄组(65~79岁)及高年龄组(≥80岁),其中低年龄组54例,高年龄组44例,分析其一般临床资料,统计每例患者的PSI评分和CURB-65评分,以28 d预后为临床观察终点,比较两个评分系统不同危险分层的患者间病死率的差异,通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)比较两个评分系统对老年CAP严重程度的预测效能。 结果 共纳入老年CAP患者98例,其中低年龄组(65~79岁)54例,高年龄组(≥80岁)44例。低年龄组28 d病死率为13.0%,高年龄组28 d病死率为15.9%。低年龄组CURB-65和PSI评分的曲线下面积分别为0.843(95%CI:0.700~0.987)、0.775(95%CI:0.618~0.932),高年龄组CURB-65和PSI评分的曲线下面积分别为0.653(95%CI:0.418~0.887)、0.651(95%CI:0.451~0.850)。 结论 2种评分系统对老年CAP患者病死率的预测效能随着年龄的增长而降低。在低龄老年患者中由于CURB-65评分特异性高,有利于筛选出高危患者进行加强治疗和监护,且评分系统相对简单,更适合于临床使用。在高龄老年患者中两种评分系统均显示出较差的预后预测价值。Abstract: Objective To compare the ability of pneumonia severity score(PSI) and CURB-65 scores in assessing the severity and prognosis of elderly community acquired pneumonia(CAP) in the elderly aged 65-79 years and ≥ 80 years. Methods A retrospective study of 98 consecutive inpatients with elderly CAP was performed in the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from September to October 2018. According to the age of patients, they were divided into low age group(65-79 years old, 54 cases) and high age group(≥ 80 years old, 44 cases). We analyzed the general clinical data, calculated the scores of each case and compared the differences in 28-day mortality among patients with different risk stratification of two rules. We drew the receiver-operating characteristic(ROC) curves of the two scoring systems and compared their area under the curve(AUCs) to evaluate the predictive value of severity. Results The 28-day mortality rate was 13.0% in the lower age group and 15.9% in the high age group. The AUCs of the CURB-65 and PSI scores in the low age group was 0.843(95% CI:0.700-0.987) and 0.775(95% CI:0.618-0.932), respectively. Meanwhile the AUCs of the CURB-65 and PSI scores in the high age group was 0.653(95% CI:0.418-0.887), 0.651(95% CI:0.451-0.850), respectively. Conclusion The predictive efficacy of the two scoring systems for mortality in elderly CAP patients decreases with age. In low age patients, the high specificity of CURB-65 score is helpful for selecting high-risk patients for intensive treatment and monitoring and the scoring system is relatively simple, it is more suitable for clinical. Both scoring systems have shown poor prognostic value in older patients.
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Key words:
- Elderly /
- Community acquired pneumonia /
- Pneumonia severity index /
- CURB-65 score
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