海口市5岁以下儿童贫血率既往变化及未来趋势预测研究

黄丽红; 施慧玲; 林尧; 符丽英; 刘颖; 施良孙; 邹斌君

doi:10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003119

海口市5岁以下儿童贫血率既往变化及未来趋势预测研究

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003119

海口市妇幼保健院儿童保健科，海南海口 570203

基金项目:

海南省自然科学基金项目 819MS145

详细信息

通讯作者:
施慧玲，E-mail：397311200@qq.com

中图分类号: R725.5 R556
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- 文章访问数: 139
- HTML全文浏览量: 39
- PDF下载量: 3
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-01-18
- 网络出版日期: 2023-09-13

Trend analysis and prediction of anemia prevalence in children under 5 years old in Haikou

Department of Child Healthcare, Haikou Hospital of the Maternal And Child Health, Haikou, Hainan 570203, China

摘要

摘要: 目的分析海口市0~5岁儿童贫血现状，并对未来5年海口市0~5岁儿童贫血患病率进行预测，为促进和改善海口市儿童生长发育提供基础数据。方法本文采用Joinpoint回归模型分析2014—2021年海口市以及各区0~5岁儿童贫血患病率变化趋势；采用GM(1, 1)灰色预测模型对海口市0~5岁儿童贫血患病率进行预测。结果 2014—2021海口市0~5岁儿童贫血患病率在3.95%(3 317/83 955，2015年)到9.99%(8 723/87 341，2019年)之间，年度变化百分比(annual percent change，APC)在2014—2019年为23.0(95% CI：6.9~41.6，P=0.018)，在2019年形成拐点，2019—2021年贫血APC为-12.3(95% CI：-47.4~46.2，P=0.474)，总体呈先明显上升后下降(差异无统计学意义)趋势。具体到各区的儿童情况，秀英区和琼山区贫血率均先增长后趋于平稳；龙华区贫血率逐年增长；美兰区贫血率未显示出有明显变化趋势。GM(1, 1)模型预测结果显示，未来5年(2022—2026年)海口市0~5岁儿童贫血患病率约为10.28%、11.22%、12.21%、13.24%、14.32%。结论海口市0~5岁儿童贫血率在既往年份和未来变化趋势上均呈明显增长，各区呈现不同的变化趋势，需要引起相关部门的警惕，并联合政府、卫生健康委员会以及各有关医疗保健机构等多个部门共同制定相关干预措施，减少儿童贫血率的发生。
- 贫血 /
- 灰色预测 /
- 0~5岁儿童
Abstract: Objective This study aimed to analyze the current trend of anemia among children aged 0-5 years in Haikou, and to predict the prevalence of anemia in the next 5 years. Methods Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trend of anemia prevalence among children aged 0-5 years in Haikou City and all 4 districts from 2014 to 2021; while GM (1, 1) grey prediction model was used to predict the prevalence of anemia in children aged 0-5 years in Haikou City. Results The prevalence rate of anemia among children aged 0-5 years in Haikou is between 3.95% (3 317/83 955) in 2015 and 9.99% (8 723/87 341) in 2019, the annual percentage change (APC) is 23.0 (95% CI: 6.9-41.6, P=0.018) from 2014 to 2019, this trend changed in 2019, and the APC of anemia is -12.3 (95% CI: - 47.4-46.2, P=0.474) from 2019 to 2021. In general, there is a clear obvious upward trend at first and then a downward trend (not significant). Specific to the situation of children in all districts, the anemia rate in Xiuying and Qiongshan districts first increased and then stabilized; while the anemia rate in Longhua district increased year by year; Meilan district showed no statistically significant change trend in the anemia rate. The prediction results of the GM (1, 1) model show that in the next 5 years from 2022 to 2026, the prevalence of anemia in children aged 0-5 years in Haikou will be about 10.28%, 11.22%, 12.21%, 13.24% and 14.32%, respectively. Conclusion The anemia rate of children aged 0-5 years in Haikou has increased significantly in recent years and will increase in the future, which requires the attention of relevant departments, cooperates with the government, health commission and relevant medical and health institutions and other departments jointly formulate relevant intervention measures to reduce the incidence of anemia in children.
- Anemia /
- Grey model /
- 0 to 5 years old children

HTML全文

图 1 海口市0~5岁儿童贫血患病率变化趋势Joinpoint回归分析

Figure 1. Joinpoint regression analysis on the trend of anemia prevalence in children aged 0-5 years in Haikou City

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 海口市各区0~5岁儿童贫血患病率变化趋势Joinpoint回归分析

Figure 2. Joinpoint regression analysis of the trend of anemia prevalence in children aged 0~5 years in different districts in Haikou City

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 预测精度等级判定

Table 1. Judgment of the prediction accuracy grade

预测精度等级	P参数	C参数
好	>0.95	< 0.35
合格	>0.80	< 0.50
勉强	>0.70	< 0.65
不合格	≤0.70	≥0.65

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2014—2021年海口市及各行政区5岁以下儿童贫血检出情况

Table 2. Prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years old in Haikou City and all administrative regions from 2014 to 2021

年份	海口市		秀英区		龙华区		琼山区		美兰区
年份	监测人数	检出人数(%)	监测人数	检出人数(%)	监测人数	检出人数(%)	监测人数	检出人数(%)	监测人数	检出人数(%)
2014	85 103	3 489(4.10)	15 691	462(2.94)	23 401	1 155(4.94)	17 910	394(2.20)	28 101	1 478(5.26)
2015	83 955	3 317(3.95)	18 415	420(2.28)	22 171	861(3.88)	19 776	802(4.06)	23 593	1 234(5.23)
2016	87 558	4 410(5.04)	13 185	564(4.28)	28 247	1 253(4.44)	21 537	1 231(5.72)	24 589	1 362(5.54)
2017	92 308	4 912(5.32)	18 150	1 055(5.81)	26 692	1 496(5.60)	22 125	1 170(5.29)	25 341	1 191(4.70)
2018	87 293	7 193(8.24)	15 181	1 258(8.29)	23 726	1 870(7.88)	19 669	1 867(9.49)	28 717	2 198(7.65)
2019	87 341	8 723(9.99)	16 657	1 144(6.87)	22 471	2 172(9.67)	20 471	2 209(10.79)	27 742	3 198(11.53)
2020	77 393	7 001(9.05)	8 908	639(7.17)	23 375	2 045(8.75)	19 706	1 925(9.77)	25 404	2 392(9.42)
2021	102 331	7 454(7.28)	22 313	1 124(5.04)	28 449	1 998(7.02)	21 135	2 070(9.79)	30 434	2 262(7.43)

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 海口市0~5岁儿童贫血率GM(1.1)模型拟合

Table 3. Fitting results of GM (1.1) model for anemia rate of children aged 0-5 years in Haikou

年份(1)	序号t(2)	实测值Xt(3)	预测值${\rm{\hat X}}$t(6)	残差δ(7)	相对误差%(8)
2014	0	4.10	-
2015	1	3.95	4.765	-0.815	20.63
2016	2	5.04	5.450	-0.410	8.13
2017	3	5.32	6.167	-0.847	15.92
2018	4	8.24	6.917	1.323	16.05
2019	5	9.99	7.702	2.288	22.90
2020	6	9.05	8.523	0.527	5.82
2021	7	7.28	9.383	-2.103	28.88

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