Development of a risk scoring tool for hospital-acquired pressure ulcer in gynecological surgery patients
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摘要:
目的 探索妇科手术患者发生医院获得性压疮的风险因素,并基于这些因素开发一个有效的预测工具。 方法 通过文献检索确定已知的压疮风险因素,回顾性收集2018年1月—2023年10月于蚌埠医科大学第一附属医院128例(其中64例发生医院获得性压疮和64例未发生)行妇科手术患者的临床资料,分析2组患者在已知风险因素中的差异。之后采用二元多因素logistic回归分析评估不同风险因素的重要性,确定医院获得性压疮发生的风险因素。再通过R软件开发压疮风险预测模型,并对模型进行内部验证。 结果 2组患者年龄、BMI(< 23)、美国麻醉医师协会(ASA)分级(1~2级和≥3级)、术前Braden评分(≤14分)、贫血、高血压、呼吸道疾病以及住院时间方面差异均有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。通过logistic回归分析确认了8个风险因素:年龄≥70岁、住院时间、ASA分级≥3级、BMI < 23、术前Braden评分≤14分、贫血、呼吸道疾病和高血压。预测模型的c统计量为0.81,具有良好的风险区分能力,模型选取临界值≥6分作为压疮发生的强预测指标,其阳性预测值为73.9%,阴性预测值为80.5%。 结论 本研究明确了压疮发生的风险因素(年龄≥70岁、住院时间长、ASA分级≥3级、BMI < 23、术前Braden评分≤14分、贫血、呼吸道疾病和高血压),基于此开发的压疮风险预测工具,具有可靠的阳性预测率,为临床护理工作的开展提供了理论依据。 Abstract:Objective This study aims to explore the risk factors for hospital-acquired pressure ulcers in patients undergoing gynecological surgery and to develop an effective prediction tool based on these factors. Methods Risk factors for pressure ulcers were identified through a literature review. Clinical data from 128 patients (64 with hospital-acquired pressure ulcers and 64 without) who underwent gynecological surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University from January 2018 to October 2023 were retrospectively collected. Differences in known risk factors between the two groups were analyzed. Binary multifactorial logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the importance of different risk factors and identify those associated with pressure ulcer development. A pressure ulcer risk prediction model was developed using R software and internally validated. Results Statistically significant differences were observed between the two groups in age, BMI (< 23), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification (1-2 and ≥3), preoperative Braden score (≤14), anemia, hypertension, respiratory disease, and length of hospital stay (P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis confirmed 8 risk factors: age ≥70 years, length of hospital stay, ASA level ≥3, BMI < 23, preoperative Braden score ≤14, anemia, respiratory disease, and hypertension. The prediction model had a C-statistic of 0.81, indicating good risk discrimination. A cut-off value of ≥6 points was determined to be a strong predictor of pressure ulcer occurrence, with a positive predictive value of 73.9% and a negative predictive value of 80.5%. Conclusion This study identified key risk factors of pressure ulcers (age ≥70 years, length of hospital stay, ASA level ≥3, BMI < 23, preoperative Braden score ≤14, anemia, respiratory disease, and hypertension) and developed a reliable risk prediction tool. This tool offers a theoretical basis for enhancing clinical nursing care and preventing pressure ulcers in gynecological surgery patients. -
表 1 妇科手术患者基线资料特征与压疮风险的单因素分析
Table 1. Univariate analysis of baseline characteristics and pressure ulcer risk in patients
项目 观察组(n=64) 对照组(n=64) 统计量 P值 年龄[例(%)] 12.522a < 0.001 ≥70岁 27(42.19) 9(14.06) <70岁 37(57.81) 55(85.94) BMI[例(%)] 7.173a 0.007 < 23 35(54.69) 20(31.25) ≥23 29(45.31) 44(68.75) 吸烟史[例(%)] 0.237a 0.626 是 9(14.06) 11(17.19) 否 55(85.94) 53(82.81) ASA分级[例(%)] 21.460a < 0.001 1~2级 15(23.44) 41(64.06) ≥3级 49(76.56) 23(35.94) 术前Braden评分[例(%)] 6.893a 0.009 ≤14分 16(25.00) 5(7.81) ≥15分 48(75.00) 59(92.19) 病理类型[例(%)] 2.723a 0.099 急诊 28(43.75) 19(29.69) 择期 36(56.25) 45(70.31) 疾病类型[例(%)] 2.594a 0.628 畸胎瘤 20(31.25) 25(39.06) 子宫肌瘤 18(28.13) 20(31.25) 巧克力囊肿 24(37.50) 16(25.00) 宫颈癌 1(1.56) 1(1.56) 子宫内膜癌 1(1.56) 2(3.13) 贫血[例(%)] 10(15.63) 1(1.56) 8.056a 0.005 糖尿病[例(%)] 20(31.25) 14(21.88) 1.442a 0.230 心脏病[例(%)] 17(26.56) 8(12.50) 4.026a 0.045 高血压[例(%)] 38(59.38) 22(34.38) 8.031a 0.005 中风[例(%)] 2(3.13) 1(1.56) < 0.001a 0.999 血管疾病[例(%)] 7(10.94) 3(4.69) 1.736a 0.188 神经系统疾病[例(%)] 0 1(1.56) 0.999c 呼吸道疾病[例(%)] 8(12.50) 1(1.56) 4.303a 0.038 ICU停留[例(%)] 12(18.75) 10(15.62) 0.220a 0.639 住院时间[M(P25, P75),d] 13.14(12.00, 14.50) 5.11(4.00, 6.00) -9.787b < 0.001 注:a为χ2值,b为Z值,c为采用Fisher精确检验。 表 2 HAPU的二元多因素logistic回归分析
Table 2. Binary multivariate logistic regression analysis of HAPU
变量 B SE Waldχ2 P值 OR值 95% CI 指定分数 年龄≥70岁 0.631 0.263 6.519 0.011 1.956 1.169~3.273 2 住院时间 0.697 0.125 4.249 0.039 2.007 1.035~3.893 1 ASA等级≥3级 1.453 0.354 16.837 < 0.001 4.277 2.136~8.563 2 BMI < 23 0.616 0.291 5.388 0.020 1.851 1.101~3.113 1 术前Braden评分≤14 0.671 0.236 7.149 0.027 1.879 1.183~2.985 2 贫血 0.955 0.293 10.654 0.001 2.599 1.465~4.611 2 呼吸道疾病 2.305 1.027 5.036 0.025 10.029 1.339~75.112 3 高血压 0.393 0.142 5.626 0.018 1.481 1.071~2.050 1 -
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