Volume 21 Issue 5
May  2023
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2023  >  21(5): 732-735
WANG Li, NI Chunmei, QIU Li, XU Jinmei, WANG Bei. Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for complications after bronchial foreign body removal in children[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2023, 21(5): 732-735. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.002970
Citation: WANG Li, NI Chunmei, QIU Li, XU Jinmei, WANG Bei. Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for complications after bronchial foreign body removal in children[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2023, 21(5): 732-735. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.002970
shu

Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for complications after bronchial foreign body removal in children

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.002970

  • Department of Pediatrics, the Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225000, China

Funds:

 M2021076

  • Received Date: 2023-01-05
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To establish a predictive model for postoperative complications in children with laryngeal edema after removal of bronchial foreign bodies, so as to provide evidence for clinical prevention and treatment.  Methods  A total of 107 children with bronchial foreign bodies admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University from January 2000 to December 2022 were selected as the study objects children with bronchial foreign bodies treated in the Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University were selected as research subjects, and were randomly divided into modeling group (74 cases) and verification group (33 cases) according to the ratio of 7:3, using the random number table method. The modeling group was divided into complication group (12 cases) and non-complication group (62 cases) according to whether complications occurred 3 months after surgery. Logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing complications after removal of bronchial foreign bodies. The R software was used to construct a prediction model and the model was verified.  Results  Older age (P < 0.001), longer disease duration (P < 0.001), longer length diameter of the foreign body (P < 0.001) and longer time from diagnosis to removal (P < 0.029) were independent risk factors for postoperative complications of bronchial foreign body removal in children (P < 0.05). H-L fit curve (validity) shows that modeling group χ2=6.856, P=0.427; verification group χ2=6.125, P=0.351. The ROC curve (differentiation) showed that the area under ROC curve of the modeling group was 0.901 (95% CI: 0.862-0.933), the sensitivity was 82.61% and the specificity was 86.22%. In the verification group, the area under the ROC curve was 0.852 (95% CI: 0.806-0.890), the sensitivity was 82.61% and the specificity was 73.62%.  Conclusion  Older age, longer disease duration, longer foreign body length and longer time from diagnosis to removal are independent risk factors for postoperative complications of bronchial foreign body removal in children.

     

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