Volume 22 Issue 1
Jan.  2024
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2024  >  22(1): 86-88
LI Qingfeng, LIU Huan, DONG Gaiqin. Risk factors for epileptic seizures after febrile seizures in children and construction of a nomogram prediction model[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2024, 22(1): 86-88. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003337
Citation: LI Qingfeng, LIU Huan, DONG Gaiqin. Risk factors for epileptic seizures after febrile seizures in children and construction of a nomogram prediction model[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2024, 22(1): 86-88. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003337
shu

Risk factors for epileptic seizures after febrile seizures in children and construction of a nomogram prediction model

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003337

  • Department of Pediatrics, Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225000, China

Funds:

 M2021076

  • Received Date: 2023-01-20
    Available Online: 2024-03-09
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To analyze the risk factors for epileptic seizures in children after febrile seizures and to develop an individual nomograph model to predict epileptic seizures.  Methods  A total of 296 children with febrile seizures in the Department of Pediatrics, Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University from September 2019 to October 2022 were selected as study subjects, the patients were divided into epileptic group (54 cases) and nonepileptic group (242 cases) according to whether they had epileptic seizure after the day of seizure. The factors influencing epileptic seizures in children after febrile seizure were determined by single-factor and multiple-factor logistic regression analyses, a nomogram model was constructed using the R language software package to predict seizures after febrile seizure in children, and a calibration curve and ROC curve were drawn to evaluate the predictive ability of the nomogram model.  Results  The proportions of patients with the age of first seizure between 3 months and 1 year, number of first seizures ≥ 4 times, complex febrile seizures, abnormal electroencephalogram (EEG) and family history of epilepsy in the epileptic group were significantly higher than those in the nonepileptic group (P < 0.05). Age of first seizure between 3 months and 1 year (OR=3.425, P < 0.05), number of first seizures ≥ 4 times (OR=2.974, P < 0.05), complex febrile seizures (OR=4.621, P < 0.05), abnormal EEG (OR=2.836, P < 0.05) and family history of epilepsy (OR=5.572, P < 0.05) were all independent risk factors for epileptic seizure after febrile seizure in children. The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve, and the predictive value of the nomogram model for predicting epileptic seizures after febrile seizure in children was basically in agreement with the actual value. The area under the ROC curve was 0.896 (95% CI: 0.851-0.940), indicating moderate predictive efficiency.  Conclusion  The prediction model based on multifactor logistic regression analysis in this study can better predict seizures after childhood febrile seizures, and has some guidance on prevention and treatment of seizures.

     

    • FullText(HTML)
  • loading
    • References(21)
  • [1]
    KLOC M L, DAGLIAN J M, HOLMES G L, et al. Recurrent febrile seizures alter intrahippocampal temporal coordination but do not cause spatial learning impairments[J]. Epilepsia, 2021, 62(12): 3117-3130. doi: 10.1111/epi.17082
    [2]
    SMITH D K, SADLER K P, BENEDUM M. Febrile seizures: risks, evaluation, and prognosis[J]. Am Fam Physician, 2019, 99(7): 445-450.
    [3]
    YAWORSKI A, ALOBAIDI R, LIU N, et al. Pediatric encephalopathy and complex febrile seizures[J]. Clin Pediatr (Phila), 2022, 61(7): 493-498. doi: 10.1177/00099228221084422
    [4]
    RIVAS-GARCÍA A, FERRERO-GARCÍA-LOYGORRI C, CARRASCÓN GONZÁLEZ-PINTO L, et al. Simple and complex febrile seizures: is there such a difference? Management and complications in an emergency department[J]. Neurologia (Engl Ed), 2022, 37(5): 317-324.
    [5]
    CROSS J H, REILLY C, GUTIERREZ DELICADO E, et al. Epilepsy surgery for children and adolescents: evidence-based but underused[J]. Lancet Child Adolesc Health, 2022, 6(7): 484-494. doi: 10.1016/S2352-4642(22)00098-0
    [6]
    KUKURUZOVIĆ M, BAIĆ KES V, MALENICA M. Association between apolipoprotein E polymorphisms and epilepsy in children[J]. Acta Clin Croat, 2021, 60(4): 595-601.
    [7]
    陈秋竹, 杜津, 贾小蓉, 等. 前处理模式健康教育在热性惊厥患儿家属中的应用观察[J]. 中华全科医学, 2021, 19(4): 632-635. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYQY202104031.htm

    CHEN Q Z, DU J, JIA X R, et al. Observation on the application of pre-treatment mode health education in families of children with febrile convulsion[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2021, 19(4): 632-635. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYQY202104031.htm
    [8]
    张喜凤, 杨延成, 杨丽昆, 等. 热性惊厥发作患儿3年内继发癫痫的影响因素分析[J]. 中国实用医刊, 2022, 49(4): 31-34.

    ZHANG X F, YANG Y C, YANG L K, etc Analysis of influencing factors of secondary epilepsy in children with febrile seizures within 3 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Practical Medicine, 2022, 49(4): 31-34.
    [9]
    王卫平, 孙锟, 常立文. 儿科学[M]. 9版. 北京: 人民卫生出版社, 2018: 374-377.

    WANG W P, SUN K, CHANG I W. Pediatrics[M]. 9 Ed. Beijing: People's Medical Publishing House, 2018: 374-377.
    [10]
    MIYAGI Y, SASANO T, KATO H, et al. Hyponatremia and recurrent febrile seizures during febrile episodes: a meta-analysis[J]. Cureus, 2022, 14(4): 1-19.
    [11]
    俞栋, 邵晓丽. 儿童疫苗接种和热性惊厥相关性研究进展[J]. 中华全科医学, 2022, 20(11): 1930-1933. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.002738

    YU D, SHAO X L. Research progress on the correlation between vaccination and febrile convulsion in children[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2022, 20(11): 1930-1933. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.002738
    [12]
    TARHANI F, NEZAMI A, HEIDARI G, et al. Factors associated with febrile seizures among children[J]. Ann Med Surg(Lond), 2022, 75(1): 1-22.
    [13]
    SKOTTE L, FADISTA J, BYBJERG-GRAUHOLM J, et al. Genome-wide association study of febrile seizures implicates fever response and neuronal excitability genes[J]. Brain, 2022, 145(2): 555-568. doi: 10.1093/brain/awab260
    [14]
    CRAIU D, RENER PRIMEC Z, LAGAE L, et al. Vaccination and childhood epilepsies[J]. Eur J Paediatr Neurol, 2022, 36(1): 57-68.
    [15]
    TIAN Y, ZHAI Q X, LI X J, et al. ATP6V0C is associated with febrile seizures and epilepsy with febrile seizures plus[J]. Front Mol Neurosci, 2022, 15(1): 1-25.
    [16]
    叶军. 小儿热性惊厥发展为癫痫高危因素分析[J]. 中外医学研究, 2018, 16(6): 73-74. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YJZY201806036.htm

    YE J. Analysis of high risk factors for children with febrile convulsion developing into epilepsy[J]. Chinese And Foreign Medical Research, 2018, 16(6): 73-74. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YJZY201806036.htm
    [17]
    吴光声, 朱亚非, 李珊, 等. 3个全面性癫痫伴热性惊厥附加症家系的遗传学研究[J]. 中华全科医学, 2019, 17(7): 1125-1127, 1240. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.000880

    WU G S, ZHU Y F, LI S, et al. Genetic study of 3 families with generalized epilepsy and febrile convulsion syndrome[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2019, 17(7): 1125-1127, 1240. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.000880
    [18]
    EILBERT W, CHAN C. Febrile seizures: a review[J]. J Am Coll Emerg Physicians Open, 2022, 3(4): 1-24.
    [19]
    陈昌, 李有志, 刘畅. 热性惊厥患儿的临床特点及后期癫痫发作的影响因素分析[J]. 癫痫与神经电生理学杂志, 2021, 30(3): 155-159. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-OBED202103007.htm

    CHEN C, LI Y Z, LIU C. Clinical characteristics of children with febrile convulsion and analysis of influencing factors of later seizures[J]. Journal of Epileptology and Electroneurophysiology(China), 2021, 30(3): 155-159. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-OBED202103007.htm
    [20]
    庞高峰, 范桂红, 朱迪卿. 常州市小儿热性惊厥流行病学特点及继发癫痫的危险因素分析[J]. 临床心身疾病杂志, 2019, 25(1): 106-109.

    PANG G F, FAN G H, ZHU D Q. Epidemiological characteristics of febrile seizures in children and analysis of risk factors of secondary epilepsy in Changzhou[J]. Journal of Clinical Psychosomatic Diseases, 2019, 25(1): 106-109.
    [21]
    苗家凤, 芈晓艳, 苑聪聪, 等. 高热惊厥患儿早期病情危重变化列线图预测模型的建立及分析[J]. 中国实用护理杂志, 2022, 38(30): 2387-2394.

    MIAO J F, MI X Y, YUAN C C, et al. Establishment and analysis of a nomograph prediction model for early critical changes in children with febrile seizures[J]. Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing, 2022, 38(30): 2387-2394.
    • Relative Articles
    • Supplements(0)
    • Cited By
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Figures(3)  / Tables(2)

    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML

    Article Metrics

    Article views (56) PDF downloads(6) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    Address：No. 287, Changhuai Road, Bengbu, Anhui Province, 233004, P.R.ChinaphoneNo：0552-3066635； 0552-3051890Email：zhqkyx@163.com

    Copyright © Chinese Journal of General Practice皖ICP备2020018345号-2

    Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd.    

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return