Volume 22 Issue 6
Jun.  2024
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2024  >  22(6): 1059-1063
WANG Qianyou, ZHAO Boxuan, WANG Wen'an. Analysis of trend and age-period-cohort model on ischemic stroke incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 in China[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2024, 22(6): 1059-1063. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003566
Citation: WANG Qianyou, ZHAO Boxuan, WANG Wen'an. Analysis of trend and age-period-cohort model on ischemic stroke incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 in China[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2024, 22(6): 1059-1063. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003566
shu

Analysis of trend and age-period-cohort model on ischemic stroke incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 in China

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003566
  • 1.

    Department of Neurology, Chongming Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Shanghai 202150, China

Funds:

 81971000

 CKY2016-08

  • Received Date: 2023-11-29
    Available Online: 2024-07-22
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To analyze the incidence and mortality trend of ischemic stroke in China from 1990 to 2019, and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence and mortality risk of ischemic stroke.  Methods  The incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke in China were collected from the Global Burden of Disease database. The joint regression model and age-period-cohort (APC) model were used to analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke and the age, period, and cohort effects affecting the incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke, respectively. Jointpoint software and Stata software were used.  Results  The average annual percent change in incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke in China from 1990 to 2019 was 3.5% (95% CI: 3.5%-3.6%) and 2.8% (95% CI: 2.5%-3.1%), showing an increasing trend. The APC model suggested that the risk of ischemic stroke and death increased with age and year, with the later birth cohort having a lower risk of onset and death than the earlier birth cohort.  Conclusion  The overall incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke in China increased year by year from 1990 to 2019. The risk of ischemic stroke incidence and death is higher in people with older age, more recent lifetimes, and earlier birth. Prevention of ischemic stroke should be strengthened in special groups to reduce the disease burden.

     

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