Research and predictive analysis on the fairness of resource allocation of general practitioners in China

WU Shuang; SUN Yu; QI Li; CAO Zhihui

doi:10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003740

Volume 22 Issue 11

Nov. 2024

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Article Navigation > Chinese Journal of General Practice > 2024 > 22(11): 1813-1817

WU Shuang, SUN Yu, QI Li, CAO Zhihui. Research and predictive analysis on the fairness of resource allocation of general practitioners in China[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2024, 22(11): 1813-1817. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003740

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WU Shuang, SUN Yu, QI Li, CAO Zhihui. Research and predictive analysis on the fairness of resource allocation of general practitioners in China[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2024, 22(11): 1813-1817. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003740

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Research and predictive analysis on the fairness of resource allocation of general practitioners in China

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003740

WU Shuang^{1, 2}
, SUN Yu¹
, QI Li¹
, CAO Zhihui^{1, 2
,
,}

1.
Department of Economics and Management, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, Hebei 063210, China

Funds:

HB22SH004

Received Date: 2024-04-13
Available Online: 2024-12-31

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the equity of general practitioner allocation in China and to forecast future trends. The findings will provide a theoretical reference for the promotion of general practice development. Methods The research sample comprised the number of general practitioners in China from 2017 to 2021. A descriptive analysis of the allocation of general practitioners in China was conducted using the health resource density index and annual growth rate. The Gini coefficient and agglomeration degree were employed to assess the fairness of the distribution, while the grey model GM (1, 1) was utilized to conduct predictive analysis. Results During the observation period, the annual growth rate of general practitioners in China was 14.53%, with corresponding health resource density indexes of 0.069, 0.084, 0.098, 0.110 and 0.118, respectively. The population Gini coefficients of general practitioners in China are 0.231, 0.224, 0.177, 0.157 and 0.147, respectively. The corresponding geographical Gini coefficients are 0.727, 0.730, 0.715, 0.709 and 0.717, respectively. The geographical agglomeration degree is greater than 1 in the eastern and central regions, less than 1 in the western region, greater than 1 in the eastern region, and less than 1 in the central and western regions. The grey model GM (1, 1) predicts that the number of general practitioners in China from 2022 to 2025 will be 494 402, 551 471, 615 127 and 686 131, respectively. Additionally, the number of general practitioners per 10 000 population will be 3.50, 3.89, 4.33 and 4.83, respectively. Conclusion The number of general practitioners in China has increased at a consistent rate; however, the regional distribution remains imbalanced. The distribution of the general practitioner population is more equitable than that of geography. It is clear that there are significant regional differences in the distribution of general practitioner resources and that improvements in fairness are needed. It is anticipated that the future development of general practitioner resources in China will be favourable.
- General practitioner,
- Resource allocation,
- Equity,
- Grey prediction model

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References

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