Volume 23 Issue 3
Mar.  2025
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2025  >  23(3): 357-361
HU Bingzhi, ZHANG Tao, CHEN Xiaoling, CHEN Xiaodong, SHI Shuyin. Development status and future demand projections of general practitioners in China[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(3): 357-361. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003903
Citation: HU Bingzhi, ZHANG Tao, CHEN Xiaoling, CHEN Xiaodong, SHI Shuyin. Development status and future demand projections of general practitioners in China[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(3): 357-361. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003903
shu

Development status and future demand projections of general practitioners in China

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003903
  • 1.

    Human Resources Department, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical

Funds:

 2023D01C156

  • Received Date: 2025-01-02
    Available Online: 2025-05-14
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To analyze the development trends of general practitioners (GPs) in China from 2012 to 2021 and predict the number of general practitioners from 2022 to 2026.  Methods  A database was established using Excel 2010. The gray GM (1, 1) model and the exponential smoothing model were used to predict and analyze the number of general practitioners in China, respectively.  Results  During the observation period, the total number of general practitioners, the number of registered general practitioners, and the number of general practitioners per 10 000 population all showed an increasing traend. The total number of general practitioners increased from 109 794 in 2012 to 434 868 in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 18.77%. The number of registered general practitioners under the general practice specialty increased from 37 173 in 2012 to 314 297 in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 30.58%. The number of general practitioners per 10 000 population increased from 0.81 in 2012 to 3.08 in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 18.17%. The grey GM (1, 1) model for GPs has a grade 1 fit, with an average relative error of 3.341%. The best exponential smoothing model for general practitioners was the Brown linear trend model, with an average relative error of 3.338%.  Conclusion  The accuracy of the exponential smoothing model for predicting general practitioners in China from 2012 to 2021 is better than that of the grey GM (1, 1) model. However, the problem of the total shortage of general practitioners in China is expected to persist in the future. It is necessary to further increase the allocation of the total number of general practitioners and optimize the cultivation and incentive mechanism of general practitioners.

     

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