空气污染与儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的时间序列分析

吴珊珊; 施恒远; 徐艳龙; 李卉; 邢文郭

doi:10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004544

空气污染与儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的时间序列分析

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004544

1.
蚌埠市第一人民医院公共卫生科，安徽蚌埠 233000
2.
安徽省疾病预防控制中心，安徽合肥 230000
3.
蚌埠市第一人民医院信息中心

基金项目:

安徽省卫生健康科研项目 AHWJ2024Aa20520

详细信息

通讯作者:
吴珊珊，E-mail：175819217@qq.com

中图分类号: R725.6 X51
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- 文章访问数: 6
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-07-02
- 网络出版日期: 2026-11-10

Time-series analysis of air pollution and outpatient visits for pediatric respiratory diseases

1.
Public Health Department of Bengbu First People's Hospital, Bengbu, Anhui 233000, China

摘要

摘要: 目的探究蚌埠市空气污染与蚌埠市第一人民医院儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量的关系，为减少儿童呼吸系统疾病的发生提供科学依据。方法选取蚌埠市第一人民医院2021年1月1日—2023年12月31日儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量与同期空气污染物浓度及气象数据资料。用时间序列图描绘其趋势，运用广义相加模型对空气污染与门诊量影响进行分析。结果儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量随时间呈季节性波动，冬季略高。除O₃和CO、NO₂以及PM ₁₀与NO₂变量无相关性，其他空气污染物之间均存在相关性。广义相加模型显示，PM _2.5、PM ₁₀、CO、NO₂、O₃、SO₂在lag0~lag3均有统计学意义，单独滞后效应分别在lag1、lag1、lag3、lag3、lag1、lag2时最大，质量浓度每增加10 μg/m³，门诊量分别增加1.29%、0.83%、0.08%、0.68%、5.14%、9.79%；PM _2.5、PM ₁₀、CO、NO₂、O₃、SO₂在lag01~lag07均有统计学意义，累计滞后效应分别在lag05、lag07、lag07、lag06、lag07、lag07时最大，质量浓度每增加10 μg/m³，门诊量分别增加2.43%、1.63%、0.19%、1.42%、14.07%、36.05%；风险值ER：SO₂>NO₂>PM_X。结论空气污染物浓度增加可能导致儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量增加，且存在滞后效应。
- 空气污染 /
- 儿童 /
- 呼吸系统疾病 /
- 门诊量 /
- 时间序列分析
Abstract: Objective To investigate the association between air pollution and outpatient visits for pediatric respiratory diseases at Bengbu First People's Hospital, thereby providing a scientific basis for reducing the incidence of such diseases. Methods This study included outpatient for pediatric respiratory diseases from Bengbu First People's Hospital spanning January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2023. Concurrently collected air pollutant and meteorological data were analyzed using descriptive statistical methods. Time-series plots were constructed to visualize temporal trends. A generalized additive model (GAM) was employed to evaluate the effects of air pollutions on outpatient visits for pediatric respiratory diseases. Results Outpatient visits for pediatric respiratory diseases exhibited seasonal fluctuations, with higher volumes in winter. O₃ showed no significant correlation with CO and NO₂, and PM ₁₀ was not correlated with NO₂; however, all other pollutant pairs were significantly correlated. The GAM analysis revealed significant effects of air pollutants on outpatient visits at both single-day lag effects (lag 0 to lag 3) and cumulative lag effects (lag 1 to lag 7). The maximum single-day lag effects occurred at lag 1 for PM _2.5, PM ₁₀, and O₃, at lag 2 for SO₂, and at lag 3 for CO and NO₂. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in pollutant concentration, outpatient visits increased by 1.29% for PM _2.5, 0.83% for PM ₁₀, 0.08% for CO, 0.68% for NO₂, 5.14% for O₃, and 9.79% for SO₂. The significance cumulative lag effects of PM _2.5, PM ₁₀, CO, NO₂, O₃, and SO₂ was observed at lags 01 to 07. The strongest cumulative lag effects occurred at lag 05, 07, 07, 06, 07, and 07, respectively. For every 10 μg/m³ increase in pollutant concentration, outpatient visits increased by 2.43%, 1.63%, 0.19%, 1.42%, 14.07%, and 36.05%, respectively. The ER associated with the pollutants was ranked as SO₂ > NO₂ > PM_X. Conclusion Increased concentrations of air pollutant concentrations are associated with high numbers of outpatient visits for pediatric respiratory diseases, and these effects exhibit significant lag and cumulative lag characteristics.
- Air pollution /
- Children /
- Respiratory tract diseases /
- Outpatients /
- Time series analysis

HTML全文

图 1 2021年1月1日—2023年12月31日蚌埠市第一人民医院儿科呼吸系统疾病与空气污染序列图

Figure 1. Time-series plots of outpatient visits for pediatric respiratory diseases and air pollution at Bengbu First People's Hospital (January 1, 2021-December 31, 2023)

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图 2 6种污染物单独滞后效应模型

Figure 2. Single-pollutant lag-effect models for the six air pollutants

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图 3 6种污染物累计滞后效应模型

Figure 3. Cumulative lag-effect models for the six air pollutants

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表 1 空气污染物与儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量的Spearman相关性分析(r值)

Table 1. Spearman correlation analysis between air pollutants and outpatient visits for pediatric respiratory diseases (r values)

项目	平均气压	平均气温	门诊量	PM_2.5	PM₁₀	NO₂	CO	SO₂	O₃
平均气压	1
平均气温	-0.907^a	1
门诊量	0.107^a	-0.907^a	1
PM_2.5	0.560^a	-0.592^a	0.153^a	1
PM₁₀	0.492^a	-0.509^a	0.175^a	0.901^a	1
NO₂	0.605^a	-0.620^a	0.266^a	0.793^a	0.419	1
CO	0.200^a	-0.243^a	0.032^a	0.707^a	0.566^a	0.518^a	1
SO₂	-0.055	0.057^a	-0.160	0.293^a	0.434^a	0.399^a	0.349^a	1
O₃	-0.549^a	0.666^a	-0.054^a	-0.175^a	-0.055^a	-0.247	-0.048	0.289^a	1
注：^aP＜0.05。

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表 2 6种污染物单独滞后效应最大日及ER值

Table 2. Maximum-effect lag days and ER of pediatric respiratory outpatient visits in the single-pollutant lag-effect models for the six pollutants

污染物	滞后效应最大日	ER(95% CI)
PM_2.5	lag1	0.012 9(0.010 3~0.015 5)
PM₁₀	lag1	0.008 3(0.007 1~0.009 4)
CO	lag3	0.000 8(0.000 4~0.001 2)
O₃	lag3	0.006 8(0.004 9~0.008 6)
NO₂	lag1	0.051 4(0.045 6~0.057 3)
SO₂	lag2	0.097 9(0.079 1~0.117 0)

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 6种污染物累计滞后效应最大日及ER值

Table 3. Maximum-effect lag days and ER of pediatric respiratory outpatient visits in the cumulative lag-effect models for the six pollutants

污染物	滞后效应最大日	ER(95% CI)
PM_2.5	lag05	0.024 3(0.019 7~0.028 8)
PM₁₀	lag07	0.016 3(0.013 9~0.018 7)
CO	lag07	0.001 9(0.001 2~0.002 7)
O₃	lag06	0.014 2(0.010 9~0.017 5)
NO₂	lag07	0.140 7(0.129 4~0.152 2)
SO₂	lag07	0.360 5(0.314 8~0.407 8)

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