Volume 22 Issue 1
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LI Qingfeng, LIU Huan, DONG Gaiqin. Risk factors for epileptic seizures after febrile seizures in children and construction of a nomogram prediction model[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2024, 22(1): 86-88. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003337
Citation: LI Qingfeng, LIU Huan, DONG Gaiqin. Risk factors for epileptic seizures after febrile seizures in children and construction of a nomogram prediction model[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2024, 22(1): 86-88. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003337
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Risk factors for epileptic seizures after febrile seizures in children and construction of a nomogram prediction model

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003337

  • Department of Pediatrics, Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225000, China

Funds:

 M2021076

  • Received Date: 2023-01-20
    Available Online: 2024-03-09
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To analyze the risk factors for epileptic seizures in children after febrile seizures and to develop an individual nomograph model to predict epileptic seizures.  Methods  A total of 296 children with febrile seizures in the Department of Pediatrics, Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University from September 2019 to October 2022 were selected as study subjects, the patients were divided into epileptic group (54 cases) and nonepileptic group (242 cases) according to whether they had epileptic seizure after the day of seizure. The factors influencing epileptic seizures in children after febrile seizure were determined by single-factor and multiple-factor logistic regression analyses, a nomogram model was constructed using the R language software package to predict seizures after febrile seizure in children, and a calibration curve and ROC curve were drawn to evaluate the predictive ability of the nomogram model.  Results  The proportions of patients with the age of first seizure between 3 months and 1 year, number of first seizures ≥ 4 times, complex febrile seizures, abnormal electroencephalogram (EEG) and family history of epilepsy in the epileptic group were significantly higher than those in the nonepileptic group (P < 0.05). Age of first seizure between 3 months and 1 year (OR=3.425, P < 0.05), number of first seizures ≥ 4 times (OR=2.974, P < 0.05), complex febrile seizures (OR=4.621, P < 0.05), abnormal EEG (OR=2.836, P < 0.05) and family history of epilepsy (OR=5.572, P < 0.05) were all independent risk factors for epileptic seizure after febrile seizure in children. The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve, and the predictive value of the nomogram model for predicting epileptic seizures after febrile seizure in children was basically in agreement with the actual value. The area under the ROC curve was 0.896 (95% CI: 0.851-0.940), indicating moderate predictive efficiency.  Conclusion  The prediction model based on multifactor logistic regression analysis in this study can better predict seizures after childhood febrile seizures, and has some guidance on prevention and treatment of seizures.

     

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