Volume 22 Issue 2
Feb.  2024
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LIU Lei, LI Tianjiao, SUN Bin, REN Hongqiang. Prediction of prognosis in elderly nHCM patients using nomogram based on CMR and clinical characteristics[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2024, 22(2): 230-234. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003372
Citation: LIU Lei, LI Tianjiao, SUN Bin, REN Hongqiang. Prediction of prognosis in elderly nHCM patients using nomogram based on CMR and clinical characteristics[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2024, 22(2): 230-234. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003372

Prediction of prognosis in elderly nHCM patients using nomogram based on CMR and clinical characteristics

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003372
Funds:

 2019YFS0345

  • Received Date: 2023-07-28
    Available Online: 2024-03-27
  •   Objective  To investigate the survival prognosis of elderly patients with non-obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (nHCM), and to establish a nomogram based on cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) parameters and clinical characteristics to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with nHCM.  Methods  A total of 179 patients with nHCM admitted to the Cardiovascular Center of Suining Central Hospital and Nanchong Central Hospital from June 2015 to November 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine the independent prognostic factors associated with OS and nomogram was drawn. The internal validation was performed by Bootstrap.  Results  Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the prognostic factors were galectin-3 (Gal-3), ventricular tachycardia, apical aneurysm, late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), exercise stress test. The Bootstrap correction value of c-index was 0.908(95% CI: 0.869-0.947); The area under the curve of 1, 3, and 5-year survival rate calculated by multi time point ROC curve were 0.907, 0.935, and 0.921 for discrimination analysis. The calibration curve showed that the predicted estimated risk had good accuracy with the actual observation results.  Conclusion  The elevation of Gal-3, ventricular tachycardia, apical ventricular aneurysm, positive exercise stress test, and positive LGE based on CMR parameters are independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of elderly nHCM patients. The nomogram constructed based on the above indicators can be used to individualize the assessment of the prognosis of elderly nHCM patients.

     

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