Volume 23 Issue 12
Dec.  2025
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2025  >  23(12): 2026-2029
YANG Yun, WANG Xiaofang, MEI Qing, YAN Xianliang. Research on risk factors for mortality and a predictive model for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(12): 2026-2029. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004283
Citation: YANG Yun, WANG Xiaofang, MEI Qing, YAN Xianliang. Research on risk factors for mortality and a predictive model for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(12): 2026-2029. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004283
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Research on risk factors for mortality and a predictive model for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004283
  • 1.

    The Second Clinical Medical School, Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221004, China

Funds:

 2020YFC1512704

 BK20231162

 AHWJ2023A30265

  • Received Date: 2024-10-26
    Available Online: 2026-03-13
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To investigate risk factors associated with mortality in patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) and to establish a mortality risk prediction model, with the aim of providing evidence for therapeutic decision-making and prognosis judgement of SFTS.  Methods  A retrospective analysis was conducted on 30 patients with severe SFTS admitted to the Department of Infectious Disease of the First Affiliated Hospital of USTC (Anhui Provincial Hospital) from January to December 2023. The patients were divided into a survival group (n=15) and the death group (n=15) based on their outcomes. Clinical characteristics and laboratory indicators from the two groups were compared.  Results  Seven variables were selected for further analysis: fever duration ≥ 7 days (a), coma (b), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT, c), aspartate aminotransferase (AST, d), creatine kinase (CK, e), interleukin-6 (IL-6, f), and monocyte count (MONO, g). The Fisher discriminant analysis was used to establish a predictive death (X) function as follows: X=-23.731+2.66a+18.146b+0.425c-0.009d+0.002f+0.650g, and a predicted survival (Y) function: Y=-16.245-4.594a-0.416b+0.491c-0.015d-0.001e+0.002f+16.057g. The discriminant function values showed that the mortality (X) prediction model had an accuracy of 93.3%, the survival (Y) probability model had an accuracy of 100.0%, and the overall prediction accuracy was 96.7%.  Conclusion  Severe SFTS is associated with high mortality. The mortality prediction model based on fever duration≥7 days, coma, APTT, AST, CK, IL-6, and MONO demonstrates high accuracy and possesses significant predictive value.

     

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