Volume 23 Issue 12
Dec.  2025
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2025  >  23(12): 2042-2045
GUO Li, LOU Junge, YAN Yuanyuan. Construction of risk model of esophageal and gastric varices rebleeding in cirrhosis based on 2D-SWE[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(12): 2042-2045. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004287
Citation: GUO Li, LOU Junge, YAN Yuanyuan. Construction of risk model of esophageal and gastric varices rebleeding in cirrhosis based on 2D-SWE[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(12): 2042-2045. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004287
shu

Construction of risk model of esophageal and gastric varices rebleeding in cirrhosis based on 2D-SWE

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004287

  • Department of Ultrasound, Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan 450000, China

Funds:

 24B320026

  • Received Date: 2025-04-21
    Available Online: 2026-03-13
    Abstract
  •   Objective  The pathophysiological mechanism of esophageal and gastric varices (EGV) rebleeding in liver cirrhosis is complex, and the mortality rate is high. Identifying the literature factors of EGV rebleeding is important to reduce the mortality rate. Two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) can evaluate the degree of liver hardness and pathological changes in a non-invasive and quantitative manner. This study discusses the construction of the EGV rebleeding risk model based on 2D-SWE to provide a reference for clinical prevention and treatment.  Methods  A total of 162 patients with EGV with cirrhosis admitted to Zhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University from January 2020 to December 2022 were selected. According to whether rebleeding occurred, the patients were divided into the no rebleeding group (127 cases) and the rebleeding group (35 cases). The risk factors of EGV rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis were analyzed by Logistic regression. To construct a nomogram prediction model for the EGV rebleeding in cirrhotic patients, and evaluate the prediction efficiency of the nomogram model.  Results  The proportion of Child-pugh grade A liver function, the proportion of mild esophageal and gastric varices and the level of ALB in the group without rebleeding were higher than those in the group with rebleeding (P < 0.05), and the proportion of first ligation, liver hardness and spleen hardness in the group with no rebleeding were lower than those in the group with rebleeding (P < 0.05). Logistic multivariate results showed that Child-Pugh grade of liver function, liver hardness, spleen hardness, and ALB were independent influencing factors for EGV rebleeding in cirrhosis (P < 0.05). A nomogram model for predicting EGV rebleeding in cirrhosis was established according to the logistic multi-factor results, and the model was verified. ROC curve analysis results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.903 (95% CI: 0.846-0.975), and the measured value of the nomogram model was basically consistent with the predicted value, with high predictive value and good clinical effectiveness.  Conclusion  2D-SWE detection of liver and spleen hardness is a risk factor for EGV rebleeding, and the prediction model based on this nomogram has a good predictive effect on EGV rebleeding.

     

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