Volume 24 Issue 5
May  2026
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2026  >  24(5): 764-768
HUANG Wei, ZHENG Longlong, LYU Renyu. Construction and validation of a predictive model for reduced bone mass in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2026, 24(5): 764-768. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004486
Citation: HUANG Wei, ZHENG Longlong, LYU Renyu. Construction and validation of a predictive model for reduced bone mass in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2026, 24(5): 764-768. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004486
shu

Construction and validation of a predictive model for reduced bone mass in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004486
  • 1.

    Department of Spinal Surgery, Chuzhou First People's Hospital, Chuzhou, Anhui 239000, China

Funds:

 82372497

  • Received Date: 2025-12-16
    Available Online: 2026-10-23
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To explore the influencing factors of reduced bone mass reduction in adolescents with idiopathic spinal curvature (AIS) and to develop and validate a nomogram prediction model.  Methods  A total of 265 patients with AIS treated at the First People's Hospital of Chuzhou from February 2022 to October 2025 were selected. They were divided into the normal bone mass group (197 cases) and the reduced bone mass group (68 cases) based on lumbar bone density. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors and construct a nomogram. The performance of the model was evaluated through ROC curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA).  Results  Multivariate analysis showed that female (OR=2.663, P=0.019), increasing age (OR=1.613, P < 0.001), increase in the Cobb angle of the main curve (OR=1.049, P=0.019), elevated epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) level (OR=1.026, P=0.027), and elevated creatine kinase (CK) level (OR=1.026, P < 0.001) are risk factors for bone loss. An increase in the cross-sectional area of paravertebral muscles (PMA, OR=0.797, P=0.007) and elevated 25-hydroxyvitamin D [(25(OH)D] level (OR=0.949, P=0.038) are protective factors. The model demonstrated good discrimination, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.880 (95% CI: 0.835-0.925). Calibration was satisfactory, as indicated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (χ2=8.510, P=0.385). DCA showed a favorable net clinical benefit across threshold probabilities of 0.1-0.6.  Conclusion  The nomogram incorporating gender, age, main curvature Cobb angle, PMA, 25(OH)D, EGFR, and CK demonstrates good discrimination, calibration, and clinical practicability. It may serve as a visual tool for early risk assessment and intervention for reduced bone mass in AIS patients.

     

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